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Idea from Brendan Foody on 20VC - 2025

Judge AI Revenue by Retention and Customer Love, Not Pilot Counts

Judge AI Revenue by Retention and Customer Love, Not Pilot Counts

Insight

For judging which AI revenue is real, Foody points to retention and customer love rather than pilot counts: a company where 95% of pilots fail is suspect, while unparalleled retention plus customers who rave is the signal of true fit. He pairs this with Sam Altman's durability test, whether models being far better in one to two years would help or hurt your business, as the single most important question a founder can ask. Together they form a filter for separating durable demand from subsidized or pilot-driven growth.

Source Context

"The most important thing is looking at the numbers and anecdotes around retention to see the revenue health and whether there's real value. If you meet an application-layer company where 95% of their pilots are failing, it's probably not going to be a good investment. But if you meet a business that has extraordinary, unparalleled retention numbers, and you talk to those customers and hear how much they love the product, then of course it's a really exciting opportunity." — 36:00(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzftvxA84z8&t=2160s)

"I really like the thing Sam Altman says of, will models being dramatically better in one to two years improve your business or worsen it. That is in so many ways the most important question to see if you're building a business that's durable." — 56:00(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzftvxA84z8&t=3360s)

Related Concepts

moat | outcomes | strategy

StrategyEconomicsretentionai-revenuedurabilitybrendan-foodymercor