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Concept

Amara's Law

Amara's Law

The tendency to overestimate a technology's impact in the short run and underestimate it in the long run.

Tensions

Foody uses it to argue today's AI valuations look frothy on a three-year horizon but like a discount on a ten-year one. The unresolved challenge is distinguishing a genuine 1996-97 build-out from late-cycle exuberance in real time.

Related Concepts

strategy | outcomes | inference economics

Last updated: Jun 1, 2026